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European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority

Insurance Risk Dashboard

Insurance Risk Dashboard February 2024 (Q3-2023 Solvency II Data)

February 2024 Insurance Risk Dashboard.png

Key observations:

While macro-related risks persist in the insurance sector with projections still pointing to a subdued outlook for GDP growth, there is a declining trend, primarily propelled by a reduction in forecasted inflation across all geographical areas considered. Credit risks are stable at medium level, with spreads for the most relevant fixed income categories somewhat declining at end-2023. Market risks are prominent as bond volatility remains elevated and commercial real estate prices have further declined.

Liquidity and funding risks remain at medium level with an increasing trend driven by developments in cat bond issuance. The median of cash holdings has slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter. Profitability and solvency risks remain stable with a slight decline in the median ratio of assets over liabilities and in the median solvency ratio of insurance groups. The median SCR ratio of non-life undertakings reported an increase, while the distribution for life undertakings is overall unchanged.

Interlinkages and imbalances risks are also stable at medium level. Median exposures to banks, domestic sovereign debt, and derivative holdings, as well as the reinsured part of premiums, have slightly decreased compared to the previous quarters. Insurance risks remain at medium level with positive median year-on-year premium growth reported for both life and non-life business, and a further deterioration observed for the loss ratio.

Market perceptions show underperformance of life and non-life insurance stocks when compared to the broader market for the fourth quarter of 2023.

ESG related risks remain stable at medium level. The median exposure towards climate relevant assets hovers around 3.3% of total assets, while investments in green bonds are at around 7% of total green bonds outstanding.

Digitalization and cyber risks decreased to medium level, but they are expected to further increase according to the assessment of national insurance supervisors. Cyber negative sentiment also indicates an increasing concern in the fourth quarter of 2023. The annual rate of change in the frequency of cyber incidents impacting all sectors of activity, as measured by the latest publicly available data, remained high in the third quarter of 2023 but decreasing compared to the previous quarter.

Note:

  • Reference date for company data is Q3-2023 for quarterly indicators and 2022-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for most market indicators is end December 2023.
  • Risk Levels are based on a 4-level scale from Low (green) to Very high (red). Risk trend reports the quarter on quarter variation of the risk based on a 5-level scale from Substantial Decrease to Large Increase.

Related resources

5 FEBRUARY 2024
February 2024 Insurance Risk Dashboard.pdf
English
(1.67 MB - PDF)
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