EIOPA’s risk dashboard underlines elevated market risk for occupational pension funds as geopolitical tensions persist

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) published today its 2026 October Risk Dashboard for Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs), highlighting market risk as a key concern for the European occupational pensions sector amid a complex geopolitical environment that continues to shape the risk landscape.

• Persistent geopolitical tensions remain the key source of macroeconomic risks, clouding the outlook for global economic growth, fuelling inflation, and putting pressure on sovereign debt sustainability.
• In financial markets, sovereign and corporate bond spreads have widened by the end of September, bringing debt financing costs and private credit quality more into focus for both analysts and supervisors. 
• Market and asset return risks remain elevated, with noticeable increases in bond market volatility. Persistently high valuations leave markets vulnerable to the risk of a broader market correction and a repricing of risk premia amid renewed geopolitical tensions.
• Digitalisation and cyber risks show a worsening outlook. Supervisors continue to assess the materiality of these risks for IORPs as elevated, particularly in light of growing cyber threats associated with frontier AI models and the potential use of cyberattacks in international conflicts.
• Despite the challenging environment, Europe’s IORP sector remains resilient, supported by the strengthening of the financial position for Defined Benefit (DB) schemes in Q2-2026, resulting in a lower level of reserve and funding risks.

View the full Dashboard

Background 

This IORP Risk Dashboard, based on IORP reporting data, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORP sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the different schemes - i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB) - through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on quarterly Q2 2026 and annual 2025 regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs. The IORP reporting information is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-September 2026.