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This risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Economic Area (EEA) Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) sector for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. It should be noted that depending on the characteristics of the pension scheme, risks might not ultimately be borne by the IORPs themselves but by their members and beneficiaries or their sponsors.

The risk dashboard shows for each risk indicator the distribution of the individual reported data over time together with the weighted average, capturing the relative relevance (i.e. size) of the different entities for the sector. For specific indicators, this information is complemented by relevant data from external sources.


2026 October IORP Risk Dashboard

The reference date for IORP data is Q2-2026 for quarterly indicators and 2025-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for indicators based on data from external sources is end-September 2026. The Level (colour) reflects the overall risk level as of the reference date, based on the weighted aggregation of the underlying risk indicators. The Trend reflects the change in the risk level compared with the previous quarter and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 19 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase). More details can be found in the appendix.




Key Observations





Macro risks

Macroeconomic risks are at a medium level, with an increasing risk outlook. GDP growth projections (across major geographical areas) were revised upwards to 1.6% for the next four quarters (1.4% in the previous quarter), while the weighted average of 10-year swap rates for major currencies increased to 4.0% in the third quarter of 2026 (3.2% in the previous quarter). Forecasted inflation (across major geographical regions) was slightly revised downward to 2.8% in the third quarter of 2026 (2.9% in the previous quarter). Unemployment rates (weighted average across major geographical areas) hovered around 5.3% in the second quarter of 2026, whereas the euro area wage growth slightly dropped to 3.1% in the same quarter (3.2% in the previous quarter), reaching the lowest level since 2021. Going forward, persistent geopolitical frictions continue to cloud the global macroeconomic outlook and could weigh on inflation and sovereign debt sustainability.



Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States and BRICS based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Note: The indicator was revised to incorporate the new Euro area series (28 countries) from 2026.
Source: Eurostat, Euro Area Labour Cost Index (LCI)

Note: Weighted average for EU, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and China based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: LSEG Data & Analytics and Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK

Note: Weighted average for EUR, GBP, CHF and USD based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States and BRICS based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Credit risks

Credit risks remain at a medium level, with credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for government and corporate bonds widening at end-September (compared to end-June). The median exposure of IORPs towards sovereigns and corporate bonds (excluding exposures via collective investment undertakings) as a share of total assets stayed broadly stable at around 14.0% and 2.0%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2026. IORPs’ investments in loans and mortgages are limited, whereas the household debt-to-income ratio for the euro area decreased (80.9% based on the latest available data (Q1-2026). In terms of credit quality, the median average CQS of IORPs’ investments remained broadly unchanged at 1.7 in the second quarter of 2026 (corresponding to an S&P rating between AA and A). The median exposure of IORPs to below investment grade assets (with a CQS higher than 3) is low (0% of total assets) in the second quarter of 2026, though when considering the weighted average for the sector, the figure rises to (5.8%), indicating higher exposures for larger IORPs. The correlation between the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations and non-financial corporate bond spreads, aimed at capturing potential credit risk mispricing, remained negative in the first quarter of 2026. Going forward, debt financing costs and private credit quality remain under monitoring.



Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures excl. collective investment undertakings (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg

Note: The indicator includes exposures via collective investment undertakings, i.e. look-through is applied.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator excludes collective investment undertakings.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator includes exposures via collective investment undertakings, i.e. look-through is applied. The change in the distribution in 2025 is partly driven by changes in the sample composition
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures excl. collective investment undertakings (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure for Euro Area. This indicator is only relevant for some jurisdictions
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Weighted average of the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations (NFCs) for Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures. Correlation between the debt-service ratio of NFCs and the credit spread of NFCs bonds based on a 12-quarter rolling window
Source: BIS database for debt service ratios for the private non-financial sector

Market & asset return risks

Market and asset return risks remain at a high level, with bond market volatility increasing, while equity market volatility was contained at end-September 2026 (compared to end-July 2026). In terms of investments, the median exposure to bonds as a share of total assets (including exposures to collective investment undertakings (CIUs)) remained stable at 53.9% in the second quarter of 2026, while exposure to equities increased to 26.5% in the same quarter (25.1% in the previous quarter). The median exposure of IORPs to property as a share of total assets remains limited (below 1% in the second quarter of 2026), although the figure is higher when considering the weighted average for the sector (5.7%). Real estate prices decreased to 2.5% in the last quarter of 2025, after the upward trend observed since end-2024 (5.3% in Q3-2025). The median exposure of IORPs towards assets denominated in foreign currency appears to be higher for larger IORPs, with the median exposure at around 1% of total assets and the weighted average at 25.7% in the second quarter of 2026. The median duration of IORPs’ assets is overall stable, standing slightly below 5 years (weighted average for the sector around 7 years). Looking ahead, the risk outlook for the next 12 months remains shaped by a potential broader market correction, elevated valuations and a possible reassessment of risk premia due to renewed geopolitical tensions.



Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in equity (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in bonds (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in real estate (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure. The growth of real estate prices is calculated as a weighted average of commercial and residential real estate prices based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator is calculated based on the residual modified duration of assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator is calculated based on reported investment income including unrealised gains and losses
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Tax expenses are excluded
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Liquidity risks

Liquidity risks remain at a medium level, showing signs of stability. The median average of the net market value of IORPs’ derivatives remained negative, standing at -0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 (-1.0% in the previous quarter), amid elevated interest rates. The weighted average of the same indicator showed a more pronounced negative value, at around -4.3% in the same quarter. This indicator and cash holdings tend to mirror each other and therefore, broadly, balance out, in particular for the largest IORPs. The distribution of cash holdings shifted downwards, with the median standing at 1.1% in the second quarter of 2026 (1.4% in the previous quarter), while the weighted average increased to 4.2% (3.4% in the previous quarter), driven mainly by two large IORPs. The median value of the liquid assets ratio remained largely unchanged at around 51.2% in the second quarter of 2026.



Note: The indicator is based on a weighting and bucketing of asset classes according to their liquidity
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Net market value of derivatives as a share of total assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The existence of negative cash holdings can result from collateral positions that are reported as negative assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Reserve & funding risks

Reserve & funding risks for defined benefit (DB) schemes are at a low level, decreasing from medium, driven by the strengthening of financial position of DB IORPs in the second quarter of 2026. The improvement was mainly driven by positive investment returns. The median funding ratio, calculated as assets over technical provisions increased to 130.2% in the second quarter of 2026 (125.3% in the previous quarter). Similarly, the median excess of assets over liabilities increased to was 28.9% in the same quarter (23.5% in the previous quarter).



Note: The indicator is calculated as excess of assets over liabilities as a share of liabilities. From Q1-2026, the indicator reflects the transition of IORPs in the Netherlands from DB to DC schemes, therefore, figures across quarters may not be fully comparable.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: From Q1-2026, the indicator reflects the transition of IORPs in the Netherlands from DB to DC schemes, therefore, figures across quarters may not be fully comparable.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Indicator is calculated based on the annual latest available expectancy at birth for all EEA countries
Source: Eurostat

Note: Indicator is calculated based on the annual latest available remaining life expectancy for a 65 years old person for all EEA countries
Source: Eurostat

Concentration risks

Concentration risks are at a medium level with a stable trend. IORPs’ median (direct) exposure to banks remains limited, but increased to 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026 from close to 0% of the previous quarter. Similarly, exposures to other financial institutions (other than banking) slightly increased to 0.65% in the same quarter. The weighted averages for both indicators stayed at 5.7% and 5.1% respectively, pointing to higher exposures for larger IORPs. IORPs’ exposures to domestic sovereign debt hovered around 1.3% of total assets in the second quarter of 2026. Similarly, the weighted average of the indicator remained largely unchanged at 4.8%. The portfolio concentration per asset class, sector and country, measured by the Herfindahl Hirschman index, remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous quarter. These measures are calculated excluding investments via collective investment undertakings (CIUs), therefore showing high levels of concentration for those IORPs investing mainly via this asset class.



Note: Banks comprise all activities identified with NACE code K64.1.9. The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Other financial institutions comprise all activities identified with NACE codes K64 (excl. K64.1.9.), K65 and K66. The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings. As of April 2025, figures have been revised following a methodological review.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on six balance sheet asset classes (government bonds, corporate bonds, equities, property, cash and cash equivalents and loans and mortgages). Collective investment undertakings (CIUs) are excluded. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on issuer sector excluding collective investment undertakings (CIUs), cash and deposits and property. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on issuer country excluding collective investment undertakings (CIUs), cash and deposits, mortgages and loans and property. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Digitalisation & cyber risks

Digitalisation and cyber risks are at a medium level, with an increasing outlook. The materiality of these risks for IORPs, as assessed by supervisors, remained high in the third quarter of 2026. Looking ahead, the persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing systemic cyber risks associated with frontier AI models are expected to continue shaping the risk outlook. Against this backdrop, supervisors stressed the need for financial entities to strengthen their cybersecurity capabilities in response to these risks, also in line with DORA requirements.



Note: Scores compiled based on the assessment of probability and impact (lhs: scale from 1 to 4) of digitalisation & cyber risks from National Competent Authorities. The average for each answer across countries is then normalised (rhs: scale from 0 to 100)
Source: EIOPA’s Pension Bottom-up Survey

APPENDIX





Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.

Description of risk categories

Macro risks

This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the IORP sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.

Credit risks

The category assesses the vulnerability of the IORP sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the IORPs are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.

Market & asset return risks

The risk category depicts the main risks IORPs are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the IORP sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.

Liquidity risks

Liquidity risk can be defined as the risk that an institution will not be able to meet its payment obligations timely or without generating excessive cost.

Reserve & funding risks

This category aims to assess the level of the own funds of IORPs and the robustness of its technical provisions. This risk category is only relevant for IORPs executing defined benefit pension schemes (DB).

Concentration risks

This section assesses different concentration risks IORPs are exposed to via their portfolio investments. It depicts various concentration types.

Digitalisation & cyber risks

The category aims at monitoring potential financial stability risks related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the IORP sector to risks from a digital operational resilience perspective (i.e. cyber security risks).


  1. Due to limited data availability, only environmental risks are currently considered in the category. As more data will be available, social and governance risks should be also considered.↩︎

 

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