EIOPA’s risk dashboard for occupational pension funds flags market concerns as geopolitical tensions persist

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) released its 2026 April risk dashboard for institutions for occupational retirement provision (IORPs) today, noting that elevated geopolitical tensions and uncertainty continue to shape the risk landscape for the European IORPs, with market risks being a key concern.

• Higher inflation projections, driven by high energy prices amid conflicts in the Middle East, is increasingly shaping the macroeconomic environment. Looking ahead, high geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the risk outlook, with uncertainty surrounding the trajectory and duration of the war in Iran as well as continued conflicts in other regions.
• Financial markets are tested by geopolitical uncertainty. Bond spreads widened and volatility in the equity and corporate markets spiked by end-March. Potential vulnerabilities linked to high valuations along with growing doubts about whether artificial intelligence can live up to investors’ high expectations are adding to sensitivities related to adverse geopolitical developments.
• Liquidity and funding risks remain contained, despite more negative valuations in IORPs’ derivatives positions. Digitalisation and cyber risks remain relevant for IORPs, reflecting continued concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.
• Despite the challenging environment, Europe’s IORP sector continues to demonstrate resilience. The financial position of Defined Benefit (DB) IORPs have strengthened driven by the combined effect of strong investment returns, higher equity prices and rising long-term interest rates. 

Background

This IORP Risk Dashboard, based on the latest IORP reporting data with reference up to the fourth quarter of 2025, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORP sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on Q4 2025 regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs. The IORP reporting information is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-March 2026.