Where a with-profits fund (participating business in UK or Ireland) is closed to new business and the surplus assets (also called "inherited estate") is being distributed to policyholders it appears reasonable to include future discretionary bonuses in the BEL, as these will be paid out in the best estimate scenario. As these surplus assets are the property of the policyholders, therefore the amount of benefit is not discretionery in case of a closed fund, just the timing of the payment and distribution across policyholder cohorts.

Allowing for future expected discretionary benefits would be consistent with Guideline 41 of EIOPA's guidelines on the valuation of the technical provisions, but on the other hand we are aware of alternative approaches endorsed by the prudential regulator in the UK (PRA) in paragraph 3.6 of their supervisory statement SS 13/15 (Solvency II: Surplus Funds).

Future discretionary benefits are defined in Article 1(35) of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35. Specifically, Article 1(35)(b) refers to benefits that are based on a declaration of the insurance or reinsurance undertaking where the timing or the amount of the benefits is at its full or partial discretion. In the example given, as the timing of the payment is discretionary, this payment would classify as a future discretionary benefit. 
All future discretionary benefits should be included within the Technical Provisions, unless they form part of the surplus funds (article 91.2 of the Solvency II Directive). Solvency II does not differentiate the determination of surplus funds according to whether business is in run-off or not. 
In addition, national specificities of the different markets, where surplus funds occur, such as UK, will have consequences on the concrete determination of surplus funds in the respective markets and should be considered for business in this country only. Therefore the PRA's supervisory statement does not apply in Ireland.