EIOPA’s IORP risk dashboard shows a stable risk landscape for occupational pension funds amidst geopolitical tensions and uncertainties

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) released its 2026 January risk dashboard for institutions for occupational retirement provision (IORPs) today. Overall, the risks in the European IORP sector remain stable, amidst an uncertain geopolitical environment weighing on the macroeconomic and market risk outlook.

The macroeconomic environment shows signs of stability, supported by positive signals from GDP growth and easing inflation. However, persistent geopolitical instability, with tensions emerging in Venezuela, Iran and, increasingly, Greenland is further heightening global uncertainty.

Sovereign and corporate bonds showed a modest tightening, while elevated geopolitical uncertainty, together with the foreseen increase in public spending on defence and infrastructure, could exert upward pressure on spreads going forward. 

Financial markets remain vulnerable to valuation pressures, with indicators continuing to point to a degree of detachment from fundamentals. While recent increases in volatility have been contained, the potential unwinding of an AI-related asset price bubble, even in absence of defaults, could amplify market corrections.

The IORP sector continues to demonstrate resilience, with positive portfolio performance throughout 2024 and a strengthening of the financial position of Defined Benefit (DB) IORPs. This improvement is mainly driven by the combined effect of strong investment returns, supported by higher equity prices, and rising long-term interest rates, which lowered the present value of pension liabilities. 

View the Dashboard

Background

This IORP Risk Dashboard, based on the latest IORP reporting data with reference up to the third quarter of 2025, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORP sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on Q3 2025 regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs. The IORP reporting information is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-December 2025.