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European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority
 

Occupational pensions risk dashboard

Quarterly risk assessment of the occupational pensions sector

The IORP risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORPs sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB) pension schemes. 

It includes a set of risk indicators covering risk categories, such as

  • market and credit risks,
  • liquidity risks,
  • reserve & funding risks,
  • ESG risks, and
  • cyber risks.

 

July 2026 IORP Risk Dashboard

July 2026 IORP Risk Dashboard.png

Key observations:

The July 2026 Risk Dashboard on Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) - based on Q1 2026 pension reporting data and end of June 2026 market data - shows that persistent geopolitical uncertainty and evolving global market conditions continue to shape the risk landscape for the European occupational pensions sector, with market risks remaining a key concern.

  • The macroeconomic environment is characterized by higher inflation expectations and a weaker GDP outlook. In early July, heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and economic activity, while also putting upward pressure on inflation through higher energy and transport costs.
  • Financial markets have showed resilience despite the complex geopolitical environment, with sovereign and corporate bond spreads contained, although they slightly widened in mid-July. Debt financing costs and private credit quality should be closely monitored, as higher borrowing costs could increase default risk for highly leveraged entities, while publicly observed credit spreads may not fully capture emerging risks in private credit markets.
  • Despite the easing of equity and bond market volatility at end-June, market and asset return risks remain elevated. Geopolitical developments in mid-July contributed to renewed volatility, particularly in commodity markets. Looking ahead, the 12-month risk outlook is worsening amid concerns over a potential broader market correction, elevated valuations and a possible reassessment of risk premia linked to renewed geopolitical tensions.
  • Digitalisation and cyber risks show a worsening outlook, with supervisors assessing that the materiality of these risks for IORPs is rising, reflecting both persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing systemic cyber risks associated with frontier AI models.
  • Despite adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, Europe’s IORP sector remains resilient, supported by robust financial position for Defined Benefit (DB) schemes, and positive portfolio performance.

View the full dashboard