Quarterly risk assessment of the occupational pensions sector
The IORP risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORPs sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB) pension schemes.
It includes a set of risk indicators covering risk categories, such as
- market and credit risks,
- liquidity risks,
- reserve & funding risks,
- ESG risks, and
- cyber risks.
January 2026 IORP Risk Dashboard
Key observations:
The January 2026 Risk Dashboard on Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) - based on Q3 2025 pension reporting data and end of December 2025 market data - shows all risk categories at medium levels amid the uncertain geopolitical environment.
The macroeconomic environment shows signs of stability, supported by positive signals from GDP growth and easing inflation. However, persistent geopolitical instability, with tensions emerging in Venezuela, Iran and, increasingly, Greenland is further heightening global uncertainty.
Sovereign and corporate bonds showed a modest tightening, while elevated geopolitical uncertainty, together with the foreseen increase in public spending on defence and infrastructure, could exert upward pressure on spreads going forward.
Financial markets remain vulnerable to valuation pressures, with indicators continuing to point to a degree of detachment from fundamentals. While recent increases in volatility have been contained, the potential unwinding of an AI-related asset price bubble, even in absence of defaults, could amplify market corrections.