EIOPA’s risk dashboard shows stable risk landscape for occupational pension funds although geopolitical uncertainties worsen the outlook for macro and market risks

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) published today its July 2025 Risk Dashboard for Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) based on Q1 2025 pension reporting data and Q2 2025 market data. Overall, the risks in the European IORP sector remain stable and at medium levels, amid persistent vulnerabilities stemming from elevated market volatility and an uncertain geopolitical environment.

Despite a temporary reduction in trade and tariff-related risks, macroeconomic risks remain at a medium level. Uncertainty is high and signs of economic weakness are emerging, as reflected in lower GDP growth across major geographical regions in the second quarter of 2025. Forecasted inflation slightly shifted downwards and is approaching the policy rate.

Market and asset return risks continue to be assessed at a high level with a worsening risk outlook. These developments are mainly driven by elevated volatility in financial markets at the end of June 2025. Real estate prices increased across the Euro Area in the last quarter after two years of decline. In terms of asset return risks, IORPs’ portfolio performance was positive in 2024.

Liquidity risks are showing an increasing trend given current market conditions and considering the negative developments in IORPs’ derivative positions. Stock-based indicators show a comfortable liquidity position for IORPs at the beginning of 2025.

In terms of reserve and funding risks, the financial position of defined benefit IORPs remained robust in the first quarter of 2025. Digitalisation & cyber risks are at a medium level. Their significance remains high in the second quarter of 2025, amid ongoing concerns about geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty they bring.

View the Dashboard

Background

This IORP Risk Dashboard, based on the latest IORP reporting data with reference up to the first quarter of 2025, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORP sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs. The IORP reporting information is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-June 2025.