EIOPA's insurance risk dashboard shows overall stability amidst persistent geopolitical tensions.

Today, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) published its January 2026 Insurance Risk Dashboard. The main findings show that risks in the European insurance sector remain stable at a medium level, amidst an uncertain geopolitical environment weighing on the macroeconomic and market risk outlook.

The macroeconomic environment remains stable at a medium level, supported by continued GDP growth, easing inflation. 

However, persistent and widening geopolitical tensions—most notably involving Venezuela, Iran, and emerging frictions around Greenland—are increasing uncertainty and rendering the outlook for trade, energy, and security increasingly complicated. At the same time, higher public spending needs, particularly for defence and infrastructure, may constrain fiscal space over the medium term.

Financial markets remain vulnerable to valuation pressures, with indicators continuing to point to potential detachment from fundamentals. While recent increases in volatility have been contained, the potential unwinding of an AI-related asset price bubble could amplify market fluctuations, even if this does not immediately translate into higher default risk.

Credit and liquidity conditions remain broadly stable, though funding dynamics show early signs of pressure amidst increased issuance and sustained refinancing needs. 

The insurance sector continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by solid capital positions, stable profitability, and strong premium growth. Credit and liquidity conditions remain broadly stable. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and cyber events call for continued vigilance.

Read the full dashboard

Background

This Insurance Risk Dashboard, based on Solvency II data, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European insurance sector through a set of risk indicators from the third quarter of 2025 and end-2024. The data is based on financial stability and prudential reporting collected from 97 insurance groups and 2124 solo insurance undertakings. The Solvency II information is complemented with market data with cut-off date end-December 2025.